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Lopsided match cube from Vegas

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 20 April 2012, at 6:18 a.m.

In Response To: Lopsided match cube from Vegas (neilkaz)

Trailer's takepoint ATS is around 20% less 150% of his small gammon chances and less a whopping 400% of his tiny bg chances. Kleinman's racing formula gives the trailer in a 96-124 race only about 5% wins but I'll give White 7% here since Blue will probably waste 5s in the bearoff and might have to waste pips as he tries to clear his outfield points.

I think White wins around 10% more from hitting a shot giving him 17% wins. White won't win a gammon in a race so all all of his g/bg chances will come in these hitting sequences. I'll guess that Blue will, on average, have around 3 or 4 outside pips when White hits which should give Blue around 10% gammon chances. Sometimes White might be able to force Blue to crack and expose another blot so maybe 1.5% gammon chances is about right. Bg chances? I don't know...maybe 0.1% or so. If these guesstimates are right, it looks like White needs 17.35% to take.

It's a pretty volatile position since anything that clears the 10-point looks like a market loser and I count 15 numbers that will do this. The doubling window is small for the leader ATS but this looks like a real efficient double in a volatile position to me.

D/close pass looks technically correct to me.

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