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Daily Quiz 4/12

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 21 April 2012, at 8:53 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/12 (Daily Quiz)

1. For the take decision, gammons don't matter, and White needs 33% to take. Let's assume Blue wins with any of his 20 entering rolls. Can Blue win more than a quarter of the time if he dances? I'm not sure. White cleans up both blots with any 3 as well as 44 21 11; Blue will hit about 1/3 of the remaining time immediately, and will have some chances even if he doesn't hit immediately. (Of course a hit isn't automatically a win if White manages to make a five-point board first.) It looks close. What about the doubling decision? Most of Blue's wins are very gammonish, so I think Blue shouldn't double and kill his gammons. TG/P I think.

2. This doesn't look like a double to me. It looks like Blue has a slight edge only. Maybe 55% wins?

3. I'd guess Blue wins between 1% and 2% here. The second question about fanning is slightly misleading because that isn't the only way Blue can win. Blue could make a five-point board, or Blue could make a random outfield point and force White to expose another checker. These chances are slim but I think enough to push Blue over 1%.

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 4/12
  Daily Quiz -- Monday, 16 April 2012, at 8:10 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/12
    kruidenbuiltje -- Wednesday, 18 April 2012, at 5:44 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/12
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 21 April 2012, at 8:53 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/12: XGR+ evals
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 22 April 2012, at 6:30 p.m.