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42P-53P-21 *** Unlimited Games Rollout ***

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 22 April 2012, at 2:56 a.m.

In Response To: 42P-53P-21 at save and go (Nack Ballard)

42P-53P-21 [S $28 U51] "<=5





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--B-D-B---eE---b-d--b-B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21
1.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: +0.1348
Player:
Opponent:
53.26% (G:17.39% B:0.84%)
46.74% (G:14.79% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ±0.0077 (+0.1271...+0.1425) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: +0.1067 (-0.0281)
Player:
Opponent:
52.96% (G:16.79% B:0.82%)
47.04% (G:15.87% B:1.25%)
Conf.: ±0.0088 (+0.0979...+0.1154) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout124/21eq: +0.0835 (-0.0512)
Player:
Opponent:
52.02% (G:15.70% B:0.74%)
47.98% (G:14.40% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ±0.0078 (+0.0757...+0.0913) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 51 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 97605305
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Casper gives a succinct explanation why slotting is wrong above:

Also reduced number of spares on both 8 points: if you slot, your own covering 3s are weakened, if you split some of the point makers of your opp. reduce in value because they leave directly hittable blots.


2O '2X ' '4X '2X ' ' '5O

2X ' ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '5X

53P-21 [S $4] '^46


Compare this to the 2nd-roll position above. The 53P-21 rollout out was made by Alexandre Le Siege. Slotting fares better when there is a spare checker on the 8pt. In addition, after splitting, Blue can withstand an attack better when he owns his 4pt.

Mike

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