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As there is no safe way to play this 21, hitting with the ace is an obvious possibility. With it, comes a stark choice: unstack the midpoint, leaving 3 blots about the board, or do the opposite, piling a 6th checker on an already overly tall midpoint. After hitting, and slotting the 11pt, Blue leaves 24 return shots. White will hit the blot on the bar point when he rolls 56 55 52 36 35 34 26 25 16 15 (19 shots). White can also hit on the 15pt when he rolls 55 53 33 23 13 (only 5 additional shots, since 55 and 53 were already counted), and on the 11pt when he rolls 65 (already counted). If, instead, Blue hits, and then stacks up the midpoint, he risks 19 return shots. The other possibility is not to hit at all. Moving 15/14 6/4 is the safest of the non-hitting plays. It leaves 13 shots (any 2, plus the duplicated 43). Playing 15/13 6/5 to slot the 5pt is a riskier alternative. It leaves 23 shots. Laying out the stats has not made this an easier choice. Outboarded, ahead in the race, and threatening to complete the escape of my rear checkers, I will opt for the safer play. e (each) = 15/14, 6/4 Mike | ||||||||||||||
