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Daily Quiz 4/12: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 22 April 2012, at 6:30 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/12 (Daily Quiz)

Based on recent DQs, I seem to be consistently overestimating the chances of the player doubling from the bar.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 60
7 point match
pip: 106
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBCC-----a--B---cacbadA:1:1:1:00:3:3:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 59.84% (G: 22.30% B: 1.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.16% (G: 8.72% B: 0.05%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.464
Redouble:+0.567
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.546 (-0.021)
Redouble/Take:+0.567
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.433)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

My estimate of winning chances seems to have been reasonably close, but not my judgment of the cube action.





White is Player 1

score: 6
pip: 84
9 point match
pip: 88
score: 2

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ACCB-B-Ba-ab-----B-abbcc-:0:0:1:00:2:6:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 57.16% (G: 10.08% B: 0.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.84% (G: 4.04% B: 0.09%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.203
Double:+0.453
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.325 (-0.052)
Double/Take:+0.377
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.623)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 84
Money session
pip: 88
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ACCB-B-Ba-ab-----B-abbcc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 57.13% (G: 10.19% B: 0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.87% (G: 4.04% B: 0.09%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.206
Double:+0.411
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.239
Double/Take:+0.146 (-0.093)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.761)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Remarkable! An excellent DQR candidate.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 17
9 point match
pip: 74
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DCCB-----A--A-------acbA-:1:1:1:31:6:2:0:9:10
Blue to play 31

1.XG Roller+24/21* 13/12eq: -1.014
Player:
Opponent:		 7.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.57% (G:14.24% B:0.57%)
2.XG Roller+24/21* 21/20eq: -1.038 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		 7.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.53% (G:16.10% B:0.73%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Here's another way of phrasing Stick's question:





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 38
9 point match
pip: 70
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aDCCB-----A--A------A-cb--:1:-1:-1:00:1:6:0:9:10
White on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 92.37% (G: 17.81% B: 2.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 7.63% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.957
Redouble:+1.292
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.982
Redouble/Take:+0.863 (-0.120)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.018)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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