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3a 3a 33 to play ROLLOUT

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 23 April 2012, at 2:01 p.m.

In Response To: 3a 3a 33 to play (Timothy Chow)

I'm not sure why I got no bites on this one, but I think it's an interesting position for two reasons:

1) My donkey play of 20/14(2) is much much worse than it looks at first - it's easy to really blunder here.

2) The bot play is something that never even occurred to me. I was wondering if any of the experts here would see 20/8 OTB.

Here's XG rollout. Sorry but I lost the nice html results, all I have is plain text.

 

 

 

XGID=-BBC-BBb-----B-----cB-dbd-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:3:10 

 

 

    1. Rollout¹    20/8                         eq:+0.275 

      Player:   55.24% (G:11.37% B:0.32%) 

      Opponent: 44.76% (G:5.23% B:0.04%) 

      Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.266..+0.285) - [100.0%] 

      Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds 

 

    2. Rollout¹    20/17(2) 13/10(2)            eq:+0.248 (-0.028) 

      Player:   53.82% (G:9.07% B:0.26%) 

      Opponent: 46.18% (G:2.13% B:0.01%) 

      Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.239..+0.257) - [0.0%] 

      Duration: 3 minutes 37 seconds 

 

    3. Rollout¹    20/14 13/10(2)               eq:+0.120 (-0.155) 

      Player:   50.28% (G:9.71% B:0.35%) 

      Opponent: 49.72% (G:3.52% B:0.02%) 

      Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.112..+0.129) - [0.0%] 

      Duration: 3 minutes 38 seconds 

 

    4. Rollout¹    20/14(2)                     eq:+0.007 (-0.269) 

      Player:   49.87% (G:3.67% B:0.11%) 

      Opponent: 50.13% (G:2.28% B:0.01%) 

      Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.001..+0.015) - [0.0%] 

      Duration: 3 minutes 20 seconds 

 

    5. 2-ply       20/17 20/11                  eq:+0.014 (-0.262) 

      Player:   50.11% (G:7.52% B:0.20%) 

      Opponent: 49.89% (G:8.62% B:0.04%) 

 

 

¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. 

   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 

 

 

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2 

Messages In This Thread

• 3a 3a 33 to play
  ah_clem -- Thursday, 19 April 2012, at 3:38 p.m.
  • 3a 3a 33 to play
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 23 April 2012, at 12:06 a.m.
    • 3a 3a 33 to play ROLLOUT
      ah_clem -- Monday, 23 April 2012, at 2:01 p.m.
      • 3a 3a 33 to play ROLLOUT
        Snua -- Monday, 23 April 2012, at 6:04 p.m.
      • 3a 3a 33 to play ROLLOUT
        Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 23 April 2012, at 7:34 p.m.
        • 3a 3a 33 to play ROLLOUT
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 23 April 2012, at 9:38 p.m.