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6-5 forces to give shot

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 23 April 2012, at 11:55 p.m.

In Response To: 6-5 forces to give shot (pontiac)

First let's calculate our takepoint if White redoubles after our play. Our raw take point is 33%, which is pretty high, and White's gammon value is 1/3.

The 6 is forced, 7/1, and then there are three legal 5's: 10/5*, 7/2, and 6/1. 6/1 unstacks and makes a new point but gives White 2's, 3's, 5's, and 6's to hit so I reject it quickly. 7/2 leaves only one blot for White to shoot at. White hits with any direct 5 or 6 as well as 41 32 51 42 33; that's 29 shots. Hitting with 10/5* gives White only 22 shots but leaves 3 blots. I think White will probably double after either play. Assuming that's true, White's reduced gammon value means that I'm less worried about leaving more blots (which means losing more gammons) than about leaving more shots. I play 10/5* 7/1 and I take if redoubled.

For money I'm less sure because leaving three blots will lose quite a lot of gammons. Still, 7 extra shots seems like a lot, so I think I'd play 10/5* 7/1 for money too.

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