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I badly misread this position

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Tuesday, 24 April 2012, at 5:37 p.m.

In Response To: I badly misread this position (Timothy Chow)

White's position ... well ... sucks, but Blue's isn't perfect either. He got a set of stripped points with 3pt made and a stack on 6pt. If Blue doubles now he won't be redoubled for a long time if things go badly. Obviously there are quite a few gammons with White having 3 checkers on 24pt and inflexible front position. Gammons plus solid favorite = cube ATS. It seems to me both sides will be willing to go for attack if opportunity represents itself. In other words there will be a lot of hitting going on both ways, which means White may win a fair share of gammons too. I would guesstimate blue wins between 60 and 65 percent, perhaps closer to 65. I would also guesstimate between 10 and 15 percent net gammons, perhaps closer to 15%. It all ads up to a take for me, although this is probably close.

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