According to XG, the percentage of my lost equity due to missed doubles is 6.89%, compared to 8.14% for wrong doubles. So while my matches are full of premature doubles, I don't very often get into a situation where I miss double after double after double. But this was one of those occasions. In this position there are no blots and the only new point I've made in my board is the 3pt, so it doesn't look gammonish to me.
The next three cube decisions I faced, shown below, looked like (and were) easy takes, and I didn't pull the trigger until I had missed four doubles in a row.
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| XGID=-c-B--EBB---bB---c-d--c-B-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.84% (G: 23.84% B: 3.69%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.16% (G: 9.87% B: 0.79%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.00% (G: 24.35% B: 7.26%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.00% (G: 10.23% B: 1.61%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.586 |
| Double: | +1.458 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.816 (-0.184) |
| Double/Take: | +1.100 (+0.100) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 |
| Best Cube action: Double / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.019 (+0.798...+0.835) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.029 (+1.070...+1.129) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 21 hours 40 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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| XGID=-b-B--EBB-a-bB---cAd--cA--:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64.67% (G: 20.27% B: 2.79%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.33% (G: 10.32% B: 0.79%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64.85% (G: 20.72% B: 5.23%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.15% (G: 10.97% B: 1.54%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.469 |
| Double: | +1.153 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.699 (-0.083) |
| Double/Take: | +0.782 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.218) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 2347 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.019 (+0.681...+0.718) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.031 (+0.751...+0.814) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 22 hours 27 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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| XGID=-b-B--EBB-a-bC---c-c--bAb-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64.80% (G: 18.67% B: 2.30%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.20% (G: 10.87% B: 0.55%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 65.03% (G: 18.33% B: 4.27%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 34.97% (G: 10.85% B: 0.85%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.438 |
| Double: | +1.057 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.633 (-0.059) |
| Double/Take: | +0.692 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.308) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.012 (+0.621...+0.646) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.018 (+0.674...+0.710) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 7 hours 58 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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| XGID=-b-B--EBC--abB---b-d--bAb-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.28% (G: 17.83% B: 2.03%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.72% (G: 9.27% B: 0.45%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.27% (G: 17.88% B: 4.14%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.73% (G: 9.35% B: 0.60%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.474 |
| Double: | +1.164 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.663 (-0.130) |
| Double/Take: | +0.793 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.207) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 4017 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.011 (+0.652...+0.674) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.018 (+0.774...+0.811) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 8 hours 15 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
I finally cashed here.
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| XGID=-b-B-aEBD--Ab----b-d--bAb-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller+ | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.26% (G: 21.31% B: 1.73%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.74% (G: 7.02% B: 0.21%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.610 |
| Double: | +1.567 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.820 (-0.180) |
| Double/Take: | +1.177 (+0.177) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 |
| Best Cube action: Double / Drop | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross