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Daily Quiz 4/13 - Vegas Positions

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Wednesday, 25 April 2012, at 3:04 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/13 - Vegas Positions (Daily Quiz)

Daily Quiz 13 april 2012

Number 1

With a 3-point instead of a 2-point a Double/Pass would be clear to me, even with both blue checkers still back on the ace-anchor. As a compensation for the inferior 2-point blue has one checker almost escaped and a perfect diversification of attackers (1,2,3,5,6 hit and D4 does too).

Answer: DP

Number 2

White has to hit in order to obtain a winning chance. There are three groups of blue moves: the relative safe moves (3’s and doubles and 56 = 20/36) on average giving a 3/36 shot, the medium risk moves (7’s and a few others: 8/36) giving a 12/36 shot, and the bad moves (totally 8/36) leaving a 20/36 shot.

The total winning chance for white is 25%, I estimate 5% gammons for blue. AtS white has a take, blue has a double, because he has too few gammons to play on for an undoubled gammon, and after the double the cube is dead, so blue gets all his chances, he can’t be outdoubled by white..

Answer: DT

Number 3

Blue has excellent outfield coverage, but a lot has to happen before he becomes a doubling favourite. Knowing that 5 checkers off is a Double/Take with one white checker closed out, the following has to happen: 1 checker on the bar + builders for the 3-point + closing the 3-point + builders for the 1-point + closing the 1-point. My feeling here is that if we move the 21- and 19-checkers to 6- and 4 it would be a DT.

Answer: nD

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