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A few questions for Mark and Rick

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 26 April 2012, at 3:03 p.m.

In Response To: A few questions for Mark and Rick (Mark Higgins)

Mark wrote "For the average jump volatility I found of 9.1%, that works out to ID=69.0% and RD=72.8% - not surprisingly, close to Rick's model estimate with the average cube efficiency of 70%."

Excellent...just about what I was expecting to see.

"When W=L=1 though it's probably a race, and jump volatility is typically higher in those cases - more like 15%. In that case I get ID=63.1% and RD=67.8%"

I suspect that these figures are for a race no longer than medium or more likely a bearoff. I'd expect that you could test you model in a longer race...perhaps with the leader having approx. 120 pips in a 1 checker race..anyhow pick a 1 checker vs 1 checker pip count where the initial jump vol is 9.1%.

Your model is a significant contribution to cube theory and a step in the right direction. Of course, perfect assessment depends on the remote jump vol and we can never be sure what that will be or when the recube opportunities will occur in a typical game. Match score considerations greatly affect recube chances, of course as do the varying costs and values of G's and BG's in matches.

.. neilkaz ..

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