64S-62H-61@-21R-41 — Towering result! *** Rollout ***

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Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 28 April 2012, at 8:46 p.m.

In Response To: Seemingly obvious, but I missed it! — 64S-62H-61@-21R-41 (Taper_Mike)

–

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 166
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a----E-C---fD---cBe----A-:0:0:1:14:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 14
1. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq: +0.0461
Player:
Opponent: 50.60% (G:12.88% B:0.37%)
49.40% (G:10.39% B:0.39%) Conf.: ±0.0029 (+0.0432...+0.0490) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq: +0.0315 (-0.0146)
Player:
Opponent: 50.63% (G:14.25% B:0.48%)
49.37% (G:13.02% B:0.57%) Conf.: ±0.0035 (+0.0280...+0.0349) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 02 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/23 13/9 eq: +0.0090 (-0.0371)
Player:
Opponent: 49.66% (G:12.87% B:0.37%)
50.34% (G:10.81% B:0.42%) Conf.: ±0.0031 (+0.0060...+0.0121) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 26 minutes

¹ 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5185716
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

64S-62H-61@-21R-41 –[T $15 S37] –"<=31

This is an unexpected result. All the posters in this thread, including me, played $ = Slot (13/9 6/5).
Dmitriy suggests that the bot just wants to bide its time. A shot awaits the patient. It may be that White’s poor development is the key. Many 5s and 6s cause White to cough up a blot right away. Slotting offers White the option of a diverting hit on some of his awkward rolls.
I looked briefly for a well-played sequence that leads to a similar 41 where slotting is best, but could not find one.
Mike