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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/14
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/14 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Saturday, 28 April 2012, at 9:30 p.m.
Daily Quiz 14 april 2012
Number 1
If we think away the contact, white has three difficult (11/36) goals to achieve, and blue has to do the same. Blue is the one with lesser timing, but the outfield blots give him enough, he has 27 pips to spoil before throwing a 6, the chance of throwing a 6 within 4 moves is 1 – (25/36)^4 = 1- (625/1296)^2 = about 77%. So white might get close to 25% wins because of blue crunching, but blue will get I guess about 20% gammons on average. So based on the goals it’s DP, because whites goal is bigger on average. Based on the crunch it’s borderline DT. Based on the gammons also that becomes DP.
Answer: DP
Number 2
First of all we don’t have to take risks because of gammons. So it seems that we have to compare the risks of 5off 1off and 6/1 6/5. The risk of 6/1 6/5 is white throwing D6 or white throwing no 6 followed by blue throwing D6 or D5 and white hitting= 1/36 + 25/36 x 2/36 x 11/36 = 4%. The risk of 5o 1o = D6, D5,65,54,52 followed by a white hit = 8/36 x 11/36 = 88/1296 = almost 7%, and more later on.
Answer: 6/1 6/5
Number 3
Trying to escape loses on white throwing a 4 or a 9 = 17/36 and after that there are some variations where white gets another hit. So trying to escape now makes white a favourite. After 13/10 13/8 blue is a slight race-favourite, and the positions are about equal in value.
Answer: 13/10 13/8
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