| |
BGonline.org Forums
Would you do it OtB?
Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov In Response To: Would you do it OtB? (svilo)
Date: Sunday, 29 April 2012, at 9:18 p.m.
The problem is YOU DONT HIT HIM.
Sure you hit him. He hits you lose with 42, 32, 64, 63, 64, 66. You hit him back with 11 numbers. That's 121/1296. He will switch with 55, 44, 33. and you get a few fly shots there right away and more on subsequent rolls. When he hits you and you dance he doesn't always cover, perhaps for more than one turn. Finally, you may hit him after closed out.
Also you give not one, but two new blots.
Yes, but most of the time when Blue hits, he hits from the bar on the ace, and then all numbers are diversified. The point is Blue will not have 3 blots [unless a six comes with the ace] once this sequence occurs.
You may hit him sometime. Perhaps the clue is the "spirit of the position". As GG, he will hit you lose with 1s 2s and 43 52 - 2/3 of the time . You will hit back 30% of the time AND COVER VERY OFTEN. You need him to dance 50% of the time with 2 open points. You need to leap 30% of the time, (multiplying gives 5%) and win from there. He will have lifted the barpoint blot with any number. So you have to win against 2 blots - one under attack and the other on your 11.
Ok, Blue doesn't win very often, what else is new. But I see no point not to try. Ok, maybe Blue will lose a gammon slightly more often. But as some around here say,"If you afraid, go to church".
But he can also cover the barpoint with 7s and even 1s since the gammon price is so low. I am not sure whether covering the bar if better than hitting lose on the ace with 7s.
And I don't care which one is better [i would cover given the low probability of gammon] . That is his problem, not mine. If the cover is right then 8/5 gains in this sequence, as it is building the board and makes a crossover.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.