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Would you do it OtB? RO - the beauty of ugliness

Posted By: svilo
Date: Monday, 30 April 2012, at 5:29 a.m.

In Response To: Would you do it OtB? (svilo)





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 74
7 point match
pip: 91
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-CCBBBAA-----A--b-f--cba-:2:-1:-1:31:1:3:0:7:3
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout1Bar/24 8/5eq: -0.897
Player:
Opponent:
8.38% (G:0.62% B:0.01%)
91.62% (G:6.52% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.898...-0.897) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 6/3eq: -0.915 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
7.59% (G:0.68% B:0.01%)
92.41% (G:6.70% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.915...-0.914) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds
1 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

Thank you, Dmitry
OtB it is easy to be dissuaded from 8/5 creating blots and breaking a point in a situation where the opponent would love to win the match in one game.

It is the "spirit of the position" and the visualization of the next possible rolls which "open the eyes". Imagine after entering we play 8/5. When he hits lose on the ace and we enter (121/1296 of the time),we will end up with a 4 point board (all rolls except 61 cover a blot, 61 leaps). Instead of nothing (after 6/3) we would have a real chance of winning (he dances and we leap out). Granted this is a tiny chance, but the risk is very small - Black is posed to improve his position next roll or the roll when he enters. It is only a temporary "ugliness" of his position after the 8/5. I would call this the beauty of ugliness.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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