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21S-63S-62H-21 — Unlimited Games — XG2 3-ply Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 4 May 2012, at 4:34 a.m.

In Response To: Got two good eyes, but I still can't see! (Taper_Mike)

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		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 173 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----E-C-a-dDa--cAe----AA:0:0:1:12:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 12

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 6/5	eq: -0.3451
	Player: Opponent: 42.81% (G:10.71% B:0.47%) 57.19% (G:20.14% B:1.32%) Conf.: ±0.0096 (-0.3547...-0.3356) - [100.0%] Duration: 43 minutes 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/24 13/11	eq: -0.3792 (-0.0341)
	Player: Opponent: 41.38% (G:10.36% B:0.41%) 58.62% (G:18.52% B:1.36%) Conf.: ±0.0089 (-0.3881...-0.3703) - [0.0%] Duration: 41 minutes 14 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/22	eq: -0.4037 (-0.0585)
	Player: Opponent: 40.85% (G:10.02% B:0.44%) 59.15% (G:18.39% B:0.97%) Conf.: ±0.0083 (-0.4120...-0.3953) - [0.0%] Duration: 39 minutes 16 seconds
4.	Rollout1	Bar/23 24/23	eq: -0.4055 (-0.0603)
	Player: Opponent: 40.42% (G:9.83% B:0.38%) 59.58% (G:16.79% B:0.85%) Conf.: ±0.0085 (-0.4139...-0.3970) - [0.0%] Duration: 41 minutes 07 seconds
5.	Rollout1	Bar/24 6/4	eq: -0.4200 (-0.0748)
	Player: Opponent: 41.38% (G:10.10% B:0.44%) 58.62% (G:20.42% B:1.67%) Conf.: ±0.0094 (-0.4293...-0.4106) - [0.0%] Duration: 45 minutes 53 seconds
6.	Rollout1	Bar/23 8/7	eq: -0.4221 (-0.0770)
	Player: Opponent: 41.00% (G:10.12% B:0.43%) 59.00% (G:19.75% B:1.27%) Conf.: ±0.0094 (-0.4315...-0.4127) - [0.0%] Duration: 42 minutes 59 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16112186 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03 21S-63S-62H-21 [W S34 U58 @60 %75 B77] "<=5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

We love the wild plays here are BGO, and this is another one where second best is not even close. My over-the-board move was the third-best U (Up) = bar/22. My (defective) thought process went something like this: Oh, crap! No matter what I play, I’m leaving a double shot in the far outer board. Therefore, I should try to minimize blots and shots. U (Up) looks to be the safest (because making the 23pt is unacceptable here). Steps 1 and 2 are fine. A better step 3 is: Is there any duplication available to help minimize the risks while continuing to develop naturally? Later, I can always go to “minimize blots and shots,” but first I need to stop off at, “look for duplication.” Often they are the same. As Dmitriy first noted, W (Wild) = bar/23 6/5, duplicates White’s 4s everywhere. Numbered from White’s perspective, we have: Hit: 6/2* Hit: 11/7* Hit: 24/20* Cover: 15/11 Another issue I need to keep focused on is how early it is. My opponent has an undeveloped board. Hitting me outside won’t often let him build at the same time. Even if I am hit twice after slotting, I won’t be out of the game by a long shot. Mike

Messages In This Thread

• Got two good eyes, but I still can't see!
  Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 3 May 2012, at 5:26 a.m.
  • Got two good eyes, but I still can't see!
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Thursday, 3 May 2012, at 5:50 a.m.
  • Got two good eyes, but I still can't see!
    DanielP -- Thursday, 3 May 2012, at 10:28 a.m.
  • Got two good eyes, but I still can't see!
    Stick -- Thursday, 3 May 2012, at 3:52 p.m.
    • Got two good eyes, but I still can't see!
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Thursday, 3 May 2012, at 5:38 p.m.
  • 21S-63S-62H-21 — Unlimited Games — XG2 3-ply Rollout
    Taper_Mike -- Friday, 4 May 2012, at 4:34 a.m.
    • 21S-63S-62H-21 — Unlimited Games — XG2 3-ply Rollout
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 4 May 2012, at 7:48 p.m.