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OLM Oct. 17th

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Wednesday, 17 October 2007, at 8:07 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Oct. 17th (Stick)

If we hit, we offer White 11 rolls to win the game. The only repeaters are 55 and 66.

If we play safe with 6/1 5/1 there are several ways for white to win:

  1. White hits the 9-shot: 5 rolls
  2. White wins the race. Even accounting 6 pips for our extra wastage, we have a good lead. At our next roll, we will be on 61 pips, White on 69 if he rolls averagely. That would be a close take/pass, so about 22% White wins. That's equivalent to 8 rolls. My feeling is that this is generous to White: inefficient races favour the leader; White might have to play inefficiently to maximise shot equity. I'll knock it down to seven rolls.
  3. White might hit a repeat shot. By my reckoning, we have [63, 54] 11 shots; [51, 42, 41] 5 shots; [32 played 4/1 13/11] 6 shots. That's 32/1296 shots, about 2.5.
Adding that lot together, we give White 5 + 7 + 2.5 = 14.5 effective shots by burying chequers, so "safe play" is a misnomer.

Can my estimate be off by 3.5 shots? Maybe, but I just whack the guy!

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