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OLM Oct. 17th

Posted By: Mislav Radica
Date: Wednesday, 17 October 2007, at 8:39 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Oct. 17th (Stick)

Choices are 13/4* and 6/1 5/1.

Hit leaves 11 shots and nohit play leaves 63 54 33 total 5 shots.

Gammon chances are low so it is not reason for hit loose for sure.

This position seems to me as pay now or pay later situation.

If we pay now are we home free? Almost. If we hit loose we have 66 65 55 total 4 rolls which still leaves 11 shots but on other 32 rolls we secure our blot. There is some danger down the road but white could roll six which forces him for race very soon. Answer: PAY NOW

If we pay later does our position become worse? Not so much but dumping checkers on lower points is not helpful for race for sure. Answer: PAY NOW

If we wait does white's position become stronger? It seems that white has time to wait us. He has 12 pips, also if we stay back we have 51 42 41 total 6 roll which doesn't clear midpoint. 31 32 pick and pass 11 21 PoH and 63 hit loose. Nohit play leaves 63 54 33 total 5 shots. So, there is no gain from waiting unles less numbers of shots which is not bargain. Answer: PAY NOW

At last we are ahead in the race so race is thematic. If we avoid hit loose White can roll some big doubles and win in race.

Hit loose is very risky bcuz rehit mean game lost with closed board white will just cash but white is not favorite to hit.

I hit loose.

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