Position 1. Unstack the 7pt and dupe 6s. Lotsa White's hitters stay on Blue's 7pt, leaving lotsa return shots.
         
 
         
 | | White is shimohei
score: 7
pip: 147 | | 9 point match | pip: 147
score: 6
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-a--B-C-D---cEb--d-e----A-:0:0:1:21:6:7:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/7 | eq: +0.239 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.20% (G:14.77% B:0.94%)
49.80% (G:14.02% B:1.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.231...+0.247) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: +0.183 (-0.056) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.43% (G:13.47% B:0.90%)
50.57% (G:13.95% B:1.62%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.175...+0.191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: +0.174 (-0.065) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.24% (G:12.27% B:0.76%)
49.76% (G:12.59% B:0.78%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.167...+0.181) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/10 | eq: +0.169 (-0.070) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.64% (G:12.78% B:0.82%)
50.36% (G:11.86% B:0.97%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.162...+0.176) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 24/21 | eq: +0.141 (-0.098) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.35% (G:9.59% B:0.73%)
49.65% (G:11.25% B:0.66%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.135...+0.147) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 2. Surprising, but Blue wins 18% here.
    
  
| | White is shimohei
score: 7
pip: 82 | | 9 point match | pip: 119
score: 6
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-B--C-B-D-A-aB---bbbbbbaaA:0:0:1:52:6:7:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23* 10/5 | eq: -1.221 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 18.22% (G:4.40% B:0.33%)
81.78% (G:30.72% B:1.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.226...-1.216) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23* 8/3 | eq: -1.238 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 17.78% (G:4.37% B:0.24%)
82.22% (G:31.67% B:1.73%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.243...-1.233) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/23* 13/8 | eq: -1.246 (-0.026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 13.82% (G:2.25% B:0.13%)
86.18% (G:24.86% B:1.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.250...-1.242) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/23* 6/1 | eq: -1.603 (-0.383) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 11.77% (G:2.31% B:0.11%)
88.23% (G:43.03% B:2.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.608...-1.598) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 3. Blue wins almost 16% here.
 
 
| | White is shimohei
score: 8
pip: 108 | | 9 point match | pip: 124
score: 7
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=--BBaBCB--a--B---bbcbbbB--:1:-1:1:51:7:8:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 5/4* | eq: -0.686 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 15.69% (G:0.99% B:0.16%)
84.31% (G:38.12% B:8.92%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.691...-0.681) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/4* | eq: -0.717 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 14.14% (G:0.75% B:0.06%)
85.86% (G:41.89% B:9.46%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.722...-0.712) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/1 | eq: -0.734 (-0.048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 13.30% (G:0.77% B:0.05%)
86.70% (G:23.41% B:3.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.738...-0.730) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/12 13/8 | eq: -0.740 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 13.02% (G:0.67% B:0.05%)
86.98% (G:24.32% B:3.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.743...-0.736) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 6/1 2/1 | eq: -0.742 (-0.055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 12.92% (G:0.47% B:0.01%)
87.08% (G:12.12% B:1.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.744...-0.739) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 7/6 7/2 | eq: -0.747 (-0.061) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 12.65% (G:0.58% B:0.03%)
87.35% (G:13.53% B:1.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.750...-0.744) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 56 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 4. It is an incredible rush if you redouble this and win a gammon. I won a gammon holding the cube on 2, realizing very early on that I missed the redouble. The redouble gains big when you win and breaks even when you lose a gammon. The redouble only hurts you when you lose a non-gammon.
  
 
| | White is shimohei
score: 5
pip: 134 | | 9 point match | pip: 151
score: 0
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-a-cBBB-C--BAA-----bbcc-aB:1:1:1:00:0:5:0:9:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 47.51% (G:17.32% B:0.89%) | 47.30% (G:17.32% B:1.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 52.49% (G:37.09% B:4.25%) | 52.70% (G:38.37% B:4.74%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0.187 | +0.694 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.408 (-0.286) | ±0.016 (+0.392..+0.425) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.694 | ±0.022 (+0.672..+0.716) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.306) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 37 minutes 58 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2