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BGonline.org Forums
math degrees for backgammon giants
Posted By: Johan Segers In Response To: math degrees for backgammon giants (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 10 May 2012, at 2:41 p.m.
Having a PhD in statistical mathematics, I must intervene before the discussion degenerates any further.
The original question is: "Are mathematicians better BG players?".
The fact that out of 32 giants there are 7 mathematicians or more is irrelevant. This figure merely tells us that given you are a BG giant, you're more likely to be a mathematician than for a randomly selected person. However, if all other non-giant BG players in the world are mathematicians too, then you're better of being a non-mathematician playing backgammon, because then you're certain to be a BG giant.
The fact that there are relatively many mathematicians among the giants may be due to the fact that among all players, a large portion is mathematician.
Similarly, note that all BG giants are male (correct me if I'm wrong). Does that mean that women are worse backgammon players? Another explanation is that there are much less female backgammon players around.
The confusion is the same as in drug tests: the probability that you've been taking drugs given that your test is positive is different from the probability that your test is positive given that you've been taking drugs.
Similarly, consider the prosecutor's fallacy: the probability that your genes match the ones of the blood sample on the body of the victim given that you didn't touch it is virtually zero. However, the probability that you didn't touch that body given that your genes match the ones on the blood sample may be nonneglible.
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