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BGonline.org Forums
Phil..please post this position
Posted By: Phil Simborg In Response To: Phil..please post this position *NM* (neilkaz)
Date: Monday, 14 May 2012, at 2:59 a.m.
Sorry, but I don't know how to post positions here. But I can tell you the position and I am sure stick or someone else can post it. It was a money game in the chou, and Karen Davis was Captain and Carter and I and George were her partners. Our opponent was holding the cube and we were bearing off. Our opponent had a closed board (13 checkers in the inner board and all the spares on lower points) and 2 checkers on our 1 point. We had 5 checkers borne off, 2 checkers on the 5 point, 1 on the 4 point, 2 on the 3 point, and 5 on the 2 point. We rolled a 3-1. Our choice was to clear the 5 or rip a checker off the 4 point.
I won't tell you which play I was SURE was right and which play Carter was sure was right, but when Neil walked by, I figured that I could save time unpacking my computer and simply have him explain to Carter why my play was superior. To my utter shock, he immediately and clearly sided with Carter, so it was clear to me I could not allow Neil to settle the bet. I unpacked my computer and my play was clearly superior, however, since we only settle bets that have a difference of more than .020 according to XGR++ or we must roll it out, I had to roll it out to settle the bet. (XGR++ had my play better by .005.) So we rolled it out and my play, clearing the 5 point, was far better-- a whopping .008.
It was not the first time I had disagreed on a play with Neil and found to be right, by the way. It was the second time. In 20 years.
By the way, I know that we can get somewhat of a feel for the skill of a player by his results and by his PR Ratings, but I have another method that greatly influences my thinking about just how good a player is. When I show him a play or position at a tournament in a live setting, just how likely is he to come up with the right play or cube decision, how good are his explanations, how closely can he predict what the percent of gammons and wins would be and how they change if you move a checker or change the score, and of course, how often he is right. In my personal experience, nobody I have personally worked with on these many problems and questions holds a candle to Neil. That is why he is always at or very near the top of my Giant vote every time.
For him to be wrong by .008 on a play he felt sure about is an anomoly, and as far as Neil stating that I was probably more excited about being right on this play than he was for winning the tournament, there's a good reason for that: He has won a lot more tournaments than I have been right on plays like this!
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