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Position +

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Tuesday, 15 May 2012, at 6:22 p.m.

In Response To: Position + (Stick)

I would rip 1 off 4/0. Ripping is often correct when the gammon race is close - compare to close races where one man extra off translates to ~10% gwc, this means that I can afford ~5% added losses after ripping. Here the pig play gives me 8 extra blot numbers next turn for about 7% extra hits. However these are not all losses, at this point Blue will have 7 off and will squeeze out some wins. Sometimes White will have had to break his board meaning that I have even better chances after a hit. Also on the "original" 8 blot numbers (ie the 8 that blot whether I pig or not - though not necessarily the exact same rolls) I will also have 7 off rather than 6 and gain some. I think this allows the pig play.

In the variant #1 the gammon race is better, and in #2 White does not risk breaking his board prior to hitting, and I guess both of these may be enough to make 5/2 5/4 the play.

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