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Crunch Time

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 16 May 2012, at 1:48 p.m.

In Response To: Crunch Time (Mr Majestyk)

1) It's amazing the amount of resiliance a 100pip racing lead gives you even when your positional aspects stink. And since passing takes white to 5a-Crawford, she can take deeper than normal. Plus the recube vig is huge is she manages to escape. Looks like a take to me.

BLue is in very good shape and wins a lot from here. But the recube vig coupled with the gammon chances (15 35 14 24 force white to leave a double shot) make me say hold.

ND/T

2)gammons don't matter here, blue just wants to bring his runners home. Hitting just increases contact, so I'd prioritize escaping the runner over hitting. 24/14 is safe for a roll, but we'll have to abandon it next turn. With White's outfield in disarray, hopefully we can make a tempo hit when we break the 14 point.

24//14

3)14/9 is forced. Then 2/1 puts all the direct shots an even number away. Without explicitly counting them, that appears to minimize shots.

14/9 2/1

Messages In This Thread

• Crunch Time
  Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 15 May 2012, at 9:17 a.m.
  • Crunch Time
    Michael Nielsen -- Tuesday, 15 May 2012, at 10:47 a.m.
  • Crunch Time
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 15 May 2012, at 2:12 p.m.
  • Crunch Time
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 15 May 2012, at 10:39 p.m.
  • Crunch Time
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 16 May 2012, at 1:48 p.m.
    • Crunch Time
      Michael Nielsen -- Wednesday, 16 May 2012, at 7:54 p.m.
  • Crunch Time - Rollout
    Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 17 May 2012, at 6:46 p.m.
    • Crunch Time - Rollout
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 19 May 2012, at 12:56 a.m.