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Doubling problem

Posted By: Dave
Date: Friday, 19 October 2007, at 1:45 p.m.

OK, so I'm an average player so bear with me on this. In a recent match both of us were two points away from winning the match. It was the end of the game and my opponent had a 66% of winning the game on his roll and if he didn't make it I would win (two checkers on my ace point). He doubled and I took he rolled well winning the game and the match.

Afterwards we got into a discussion. He questioned my take. I said that since I had more than a 25% of winning I should take because in the long run this works out better for me. He responded that sure, in the long run, but for this particular match since this was a match point decision I should have played the odds for this particular position and dropped.

OK, so I then countered that had I dropped then the next game would be the Crawford match and so ignoring gammon possibilities I would have to win the next two games in order to win the match. Assuming we're about equal (actually I think I'm a little better) then this means I have a 50% chance of winning each game but taken together this means that I have a 25% of winning both games. So taking the double which gave me a 33% of winning the match comes out ahead.

OK, then he re-countered saying that I shouldn't ignore gammon possibilities since even though they're small they are significant and should affect how I figure out my chances of winning. Especially since I'd probably play more aggressively in the next game increasing my chances for a gammon. Of course playing more aggressively also means decreasing my chances of just winning the game. And then what about his gammons? Should we figure that in as well? Does that cancel things out?

In the end I still think it was a good take based on my level of skill and reasoning (if that makes sense) but I'm not sure that I'm not missing some aspect of analysis here. So, in this situation, should I take?

Dave

Messages In This Thread

• Doubling problem
  Dave -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 1:45 p.m.
  • Doubling problem
    DC-Ohio -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 3:01 p.m.
    • Doubling problem
      Dave -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 3:33 p.m.
      • Doubling problem
        Chuck Bower -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 5:05 p.m.
      • Doubling problem
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 20 October 2007, at 2:41 a.m.
        • Correction
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 20 October 2007, at 2:43 a.m.
        • Doubling problem
          Dave -- Saturday, 20 October 2007, at 3:44 a.m.
          • Doubling problem
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 20 October 2007, at 5:03 a.m.
  • Doubling problem
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 3:06 p.m.
    • Doubling problem
      Dave -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 4:11 p.m.
      • Doubling problem
        Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 4:27 p.m.
        • Doubling problem
          Dave -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 4:43 p.m.
          • Doubling problem
            Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 5:21 p.m.
  • Doubling problem
    bob koca -- Saturday, 20 October 2007, at 12:23 a.m.
    • Doubling problem
      Dave -- Saturday, 20 October 2007, at 1:42 a.m.