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BGonline.org Forums
Doubling problem
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Doubling problem (Dave)
Date: Friday, 19 October 2007, at 3:06 p.m.
Dave, the aftergame discussion was a lot about very little with a sprinkling of disinformation. It's actually very simple:
What are your match winning chances trailing 2-away 1-away Crawford, the score you attain if you pass the cube at 2-away all?
Few if any humans (in other words, no one) know precisely what their match equity is at -2,-1 Crawford against a random opponent, much less against any particular opponent, given their particular skills.
What we do know is the -2,-1 Cr match equity of a world class bot playing against itself, as in the G11 Match Equity Table. That equity is 31.8550%.
It's not 25%, mostly because of gammon wins by the trailer in the Crawford game, and also because trailer can/should play aggressively for gammon and leader must balance playing to win against playing not to lose a gammon, which affects the percentage of Crawford games won. In any case, all that is factored into the 31.8550% equity.
And so 31.8550% is your take point at 2-away all.
Since you're playing a less-than-perfect human, fudge that number at your peril. If you're worse than your opponent, then your -2,-1 Cr will be less than 31.8550%. So your -2,-2 take point will be lower. If you're better than your opponent, then your -2, -1 Cr will be greater than 31.8550%; on the other hand, your chances of winning the 2-away all game after taking may be greater than what they would be between two perfect players, since your inferior opponent may have opportunities to screw up the game.
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