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Doubling problem

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 19 October 2007, at 5:21 p.m.

In Response To: Doubling problem (Dave)

I think there is a tendency to recognize one's opponents' imperfections more readily than one's own. That's why 90% of us play better than average :)

I think there is a tendency to overestimate the extent to which differences in skill should affect cube decisions. Playing around, for instance, with Jacobs/Trice tables, I conclude that most doubles are doubles, most takes are takes, and most passes are passes almost regardless of skill, except for very large differences.

And I think that since most positions do not lend themselves, for most of us, to precise estimates of equity, it's quite likely that the errors we make in estimating equity swamp even precise estimates of skill difference.

In practice, over the board, I think that unless you figure to be perhaps 200 rating points better or worse than your opponent, skill difference can be safely ignored: if all your estimates are correct, ignoring the skill difference won't cost you much; if any of your estimates are wrong, error compounds error and could be very costly.

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