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BGonline.org Forums
A 43 backgame cube
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: A 43 backgame cube (neilkaz)
Date: Monday, 21 May 2012, at 2:38 a.m.
neilkaz wrote:
Improving players will do well to list and consider the important factors here.
Which players aren't improving? The ones who aren't studying, I guess.
This won't turn into a backgame unles Blue rolls big doublets, and even then White's timing will be a little shaky. I see a few different ways for White to win this game. First, she might hit a shot right away because Blue fails to safety his blot. 66 65 51 33 leave a direct shot and 41 31 leave an indirect shot. Of course then White has to hit the shot and even then the path to victory is strewn with obstacles. Blue might hit back because White has two blots in her home board, and if White wants to win going forwards at this point, then she has to leap her four back checkers over Blue's prime.
Second, White might hit a shot in the medium term. To preserve her timing, she'll most likely have to run off of one of her anchors and convert to a holding game. Her holding game vig isn't so wonderful, though, because she could get attacked when running off the anchor, or she might roll something like 44 and self-destruct. Also Blue doesn't have any gaps in his prime so is less likely to leave a shot.
Finally, White could win the race without leaving a shot. 20 pips down is pretty bad for the race but not completely hopeless.
None of these variations amounts to much by itself, but can they collectively add up to a take? It looks doubtful to me. A pure 4pt holding game against a four-prime with a 20-pip deficit would be a take, but this is worse than that; White may have to run off the 4pt anchor and keep the 3pt anchor. White gets gammoned here more often than in a standard holding game. D/P is my guess.
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