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Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 21 May 2012, at 10:52 p.m.

In Response To: Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout (Taper_Mike)

Thanks for the longer, money game rollout.

I don't know what a "Jeremy-like" rollout is.

If Gnubg reported 95% confidence intervals, the result after 324 trials would have said:

10/6 5/2*0.6596 ± 0.017 6/2* 5/20.6110 ± 0.015 (-0.0486)

After 1296 trials, the 95% confidence intervals would have been about ± 0.008, and after 5184 trials, about ± 0.004. But after just 324 trials, Gnubg reports JSD of about 4.0, i.e, long enough, if all you want to know is which play is better. All I had time for, in any case.

Confidence intervals aside, the difference in CF equities -- .6596 and .6110 vs. .5279 and .4970 -- is probably mostly due to the difference between a -5-4 score and an unlimited match. With only 324 trials, the CI's for the individual "cubeless" game results are too large to judge how much difference is due to Gnubg 2-ply vs. XG 3-ply/XG Roller (if, that is, both rollouts were at the same score).

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