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Doubling problem

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 20 October 2007, at 2:41 a.m.

In Response To: Doubling problem (Dave)

I guess the big thing is should gammon chances be figured in?

Yes. Why wouldn't they be? One out of every four games or so does end in a gammon.

And then at what point should I drop (i.e., at percentage of chance of winning). Using the reasoning in my original post if my chances of winning that game were less than 25% should I have dropped?

With 1) gammons counting only one way and 2) you presumably playing more aggressively than usual to get a gammon, your takepoint is around 32%-32.5% here (if you believe the rollouts). So if you had a 33% chance of winning, then you had a proper take, but with a 30% or 31% chance of winning, you would have had a proper pass.

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