OTB I'd seen this structure enough to know that it would be a clear take if my opp's two blots were consolidated by making his 3 pt as my blot may not find safety and he can still win sometimes when it does. I figured that he had just a bare take in the actual position so my decision to cube was trivial...ie ship it and let him decide.
Not all roads leading from this position are easy to play and after I rolled 51 and played 13/7 after some thought (XG agrees) my opp rolled a joker 66 and didn't choose the best play of hopping all 4 checkers into my outfield and later on I lucked out and won a G.
                         |
| ||||
| XGID=---bbBCBC---bD-A---cbbaa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.125% (G:11.034% B:0.298%) | 73.933% (G:10.783% B:0.352%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.875% (G:3.081% B:0.058%) | 26.067% (G:3.106% B:0.069%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.5660 | +1.1332 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.9275 (-0.0336) | ±0.0045 (+0.9230..+0.9320) |
 Double/Take: | +0.9611 | ±0.0075 (+0.9536..+0.9686) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0389) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46746902 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2