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OLM Sat. Oct 20th - Cube

Posted By: MandM1951
Date: Saturday, 20 October 2007, at 2:38 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Sat. Oct 20th - Cube (Stick)

Stick has us out boarded 4 to 3. But he has a gap on his 5 point and we’ve made ours. He has an anchor on our 4 point; we have a blot on his ace point. But his anchor is behind a 4 prime. He threatens to hit our blot on his 15 point. If he does, he might gammon us. But he’s also likely to leave a blot on our 4 point when leaving the anchor to hit. And, if he misses, we’re in this thing. I’m a little worried about being gammoned and losing 4 points when being up 6-0 in an 11-point match, and am therefore tempted to let this go. But I think we have enough play and gammon chances are low enough to take. (I’m good (yet?) at estimating gammon chances. How would you estimate the chances that we would be gammoned in this position?)

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