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Prioritising Contact After the Hit

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Friday, 25 May 2012, at 7:22 p.m.

In Response To: Prioritising Contact After the Hit (neilkaz)

I hope they heed your words of wisdom, Neil...whoever they are?





White is XG Roller

score: 0
pip: 46
5 point match
pip: 135
score: 2

Blue is Mr Majestyk
XGID=-a-BBBCB---------A--ABcde-:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 82.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 83.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 17.01% (G:5.07% B:0.03%) 16.20% (G:6.11% B:0.03%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.585 +1.125
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.928 (-0.050)±0.002 (+0.926..+0.930)
     Redouble/Take:+0.978±0.003 (+0.975..+0.980)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.022)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38989588
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 21 minutes 12 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 46
5 point match
pip: 135
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBCB---------A--ABcde-:2:-1:1:66:2:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 66
1.Rollout121/15 20/8 17/11eq: +0.642
Player:
Opponent:
86.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.45% (G:3.40% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.640...+0.643) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout121/9 20/8eq: +0.630 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
86.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.89% (G:3.74% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.629...+0.631) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout121/9 20/14 17/11eq: +0.624 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
85.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
14.12% (G:3.16% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.623...+0.625) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38989588
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Slotting the back of the prime is not always correct at DMP in these sorts of positions. I had to dig deep to reason out why this is; especially given the differential after 21/9 20/14 17/11.

NBM

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