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I should have been able to figure this out

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 25 May 2012, at 11:43 p.m.

In Response To: I should have been able to figure this out (neilkaz)

ME trailing 7a3a is about 23%, and ME trailing 7a5a is about 37%. So raw take point is about 14/54 or slightly over 25%. If White recubes to 8, Blue's take point is 23%.

White is hoping that Blue will roll an ace. If Blue rolls an immediate ace, does White have a recube to 8? White has 18 rolls that leave her with more than 2 checkers. If it is a recube, which I'm not sure it is, the take is easy.

The most likely way for White to win is to bear off in two rolls while Blue takes three rolls. Blue is about even money to roll an ace, and not doublets, in the first two rolls. As we said above, White has 18 rolls that leave her with at most 2 checkers, so I think she is a slight favorite to get off in two rolls. It looks like White's winning chances are a bit higher than 25%. So it's close. I think White's recube vig should swing this into take territory.

Tough to calculate OTB so I'm interested to hear how Neil would have calculated this.

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