OTB when Mary cubed, I said that if I take this and she rolls an ace, we can have a quick match. Then I woke up and realized that I didn't have a proper recube so then considering that I think she's a tiny fav to be off in two rolls, I had to doubt whether I could.
I spent a couple minutes of clock time going thru the numbers and just could find over 25%.
Noting that I don't have much recube vig..I saw that I could cash with a 41 to bearoff after she misses in two rolls and I roll 41 51 or 61...this didn't seem enough to compensate for the fact that I knew my TP was a bit higher than 25%..so thinking it pick-em I decided to not expend any more energy and passed.
Like others who commented, I failed to realize 11 was an OK roll for me..not missing. Had I seen 11 as not a miss, I'd have found an extra 1% cubeful or so and realized that I had a close take.
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| XGID=--BB-----------------b--b-:1:1:1:D:0:0:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.817% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 73.817% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.183% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 26.183% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.4763 | +0.9879 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.6350 (-0.2911) | ±0.0000 (+0.6350..+0.6350) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.9262 | ±0.0000 (+0.9262..+0.9262) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0738) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 78623594 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 0.8 second | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2