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I should have been able to figure this out

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 26 May 2012, at 4:16 a.m.

In Response To: I should have been able to figure this out (Daniel Murphy)

Might have added that from estimating the chance that Blue rolls at least one ace in two rolls as 625/1296 = .4822, you can reduce this well by multiplying by 33/36 = 11/12 = .916 (because on 3/36 of White's numbers, Blue doesn't get a chance to roll an ace on a second roll). .4822 * .916 = .4419. Roughly 10% of .48 is .048, so 8% of .48 is about .038, so 92% of .48 is about .44. And that's about what I got before. These sequences alone (Blue missing once, White not missing on his first roll) give White GWC of about .22 because all these sequences are redouble/pass unless Blue's nonmissing number was 11 -- that's a redouble/take.

Another thing I wondered about was whether any insight into GWC could be gotten from conclusions drawn from studying positions with equal number of checkers and equal pip count -- here 4 checkers and 10 pips -- for both sides.

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