I know Mochy's TP (I was Blue) was higher than 25% and that he had little recube vig after taking. I know that if my checkers on the 2 and 3 pts were on the ace (pure 3 roll) I'd have a bare money recube. So it seemed very likely that his effective TP was elevated at least as much as my lowered winning chances bcuz not every double works.
Hence, end of problem..easy recube AtS.
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| XGID=-DAA---------------aaa----:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 61.814% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 61.814% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 38.186% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 38.186% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.2363 | +0.5667 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.4478 (-0.0806) | ±0.0001 (+0.4477..+0.4479) |
 Redouble/Take: | +0.5284 | ±0.0000 (+0.5284..+0.5284) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.4716) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 78623594 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 0.8 second | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
However, I'd fallen from grace the previous roll.
I knew this was a strong cube and a money take.
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| XGID=-G-----------------baaa---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.772% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 74.772% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.228% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 25.228% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.4954 | +0.9909 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.7089 (-0.2012) | |
| Double/Take: | +0.9101 | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0899) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
And thus I knew this was a money recube.
 |
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| XGID=-G-----------------abaa---:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 70.610% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 70.610% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 29.390% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 29.390% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.4122 | +0.8244 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.6523 (-0.1029) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.7552 | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.2448) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
So having this AtS..I considered recubing, but wimped in fear of roll two missing 2's.
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| XGID=-DAC---------------abaa---:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 63.266% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 63.237% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 36.734% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 36.763% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.2653 | +0.6245 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.5193 (-0.0685) | ±0.0006 (+0.5187..+0.5199) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.5878 | ±0.0005 (+0.5873..+0.5883) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.4122) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 78623594 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 2.3 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
AtS that was a clear recube noting that I can lose my market substantially if I don't roll a 2 and Mochy rolls smallish.