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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/30
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/30 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Saturday, 26 May 2012, at 6:01 p.m.
(1) Running through rolls I couldn't find 25% here, but I think I should have. A decent ace point game is nearly a money take, and this is better than a decent ace point game, with fly shots and the open four point. If I remembered that, I'd take. Since I think the take is close, I'd double.
Does this help? http://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?view+145
I'd like to see a "show statistics" rollout and compare actual gammons won after No Double to ... pseudo-cubeless numbers. If Blue doesn't double now, he'll double himself out of a lot of cubeless gammons later, won't he?
(2) Running through rolls here, I came up with 18% to 20% immediate return hits (that's rough, not specific, might have been less). There must be more later. A lost of Blue rolls don't even safety one checker. S White's redouble should be often hefty, with his prime, outfield control and often shooting at a second blot. Double/Take.
(3) 8/2(2) looks ok. 9/36 numbers don't move White past Blue's outfield point. But it's hard to continue an attack. Only 2's and elevens attack the acepoint. If White runs from the bar point, Blue will probably have only one outfield defender against a 6 from the ace point. An immediate six 24/18 looks really bad for Blue. So instead I think Blue should threaten to put two on the bar by putting one on the bar now and hope for one of the 16/36 fanning numbers. 4/1(2) 12/6 for diversified numbers covering the 2, 4 and 7 points.
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