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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 21 October 2007, at 4:28 p.m.

In Response To: 31P.11N.32? (Stick)

I wanted to repost the initial rollout I performed which was 1296 trials along side the extension to 5184 trials. While the equity of 24/22 13/10 & 24/21 13/11 didn't change a whole lot the swing on two up, 24/22 24/21 was huge! I am now extending this rollout further but it was mentioned on either my forums or Kit's forums how ppl see a '1296 game rollout' and sort of blindly trust the results, this is just one example of why you shouldn't.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, user 0

gnubg	163
user	163
Position ID: sFvwATCwZ/ABMA Match ID: cIkJAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	24/22 24/21	-0.0177
			0.4964 0.1100 0.0043 - 0.5036 0.1160 0.0040 -0.0129 -0.0177 0.0021 0.0029 0.0006 - 0.0021 0.0027 0.0003 0.0068 0.0187
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1016361950 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/22 13/10	-0.0578 ( -0.0401)
			0.4840 0.1238 0.0052 - 0.5160 0.1276 0.0066 -0.0373 -0.0578 0.0021 0.0028 0.0004 - 0.0021 0.0030 0.0008 0.0070 0.0171
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1016361950 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	24/21 13/11	-0.0603 ( -0.0426)
			0.4823 0.1188 0.0056 - 0.5177 0.1238 0.0066 -0.0414 -0.0603 0.0023 0.0028 0.0006 - 0.0023 0.0032 0.0006 0.0073 0.0197
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1016361950 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	24/22 24/21	-0.0445
			0.4897 0.1270 0.0060 - 0.5103 0.1430 0.0054 -0.0359 -0.0445 0.0009 0.0011 0.0003 - 0.0009 0.0011 0.0002 0.0025 0.0069
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1016361950 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/22 13/10	-0.0532 ( -0.0086)
			0.4847 0.1433 0.0068 - 0.5153 0.1445 0.0074 -0.0324 -0.0532 0.0009 0.0010 0.0003 - 0.0009 0.0011 0.0003 0.0028 0.0069
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1016361950 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	24/21 13/11	-0.0616 ( -0.0171)
			0.4827 0.1374 0.0063 - 0.5173 0.1425 0.0070 -0.0404 -0.0616 0.0009 0.0011 0.0003 - 0.0009 0.0011 0.0003 0.0026 0.0072
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1016361950 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 31P.11N.32?
  Stick -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 8:49 a.m.
  • 31P.11N.32?
    Mislav Radica -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 9:12 a.m.
  • 31P.11N.32?
    Stein Kulseth -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 9:16 a.m.
  • 31P.11N.32?
    Keene -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 7:05 p.m.
  • 31P.11N.32?
    adambulldog -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 11:48 p.m.
  • 31P.11N.32?
    adambulldog -- Friday, 19 October 2007, at 11:58 p.m.
  • 31P.11N.32?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 20 October 2007, at 2:35 a.m.
  • 31P.11N.32?
    CamFella -- Saturday, 20 October 2007, at 2:57 p.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Sunday, 21 October 2007, at 4:28 p.m.
    • Rollouts
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 21 October 2007, at 8:20 p.m.
      • Rollouts
        Stick -- Sunday, 21 October 2007, at 9:12 p.m.
        • Rollouts
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 21 October 2007, at 9:28 p.m.
          • Rollouts
            Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 21 October 2007, at 11:05 p.m.
            • Rollouts
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 22 October 2007, at 12:35 a.m.
    • Rollouts
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 21 October 2007, at 8:41 p.m.
  • 31P.11N.32?
    Marty Storer -- Tuesday, 23 October 2007, at 2:05 p.m.