| |
BGonline.org Forums
61 desperation
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: 61 desperation (BenF)
Date: Sunday, 27 May 2012, at 3:23 a.m.
This position is certainly winnable. It's far from hopeless. So play to win.
You (Blue) want White's prime to break. You want to contain White's back checker.
You want to squeeze your opponent and flex yourself -- minimize the number/power of opponent's good rolls, maximize the frequency/power of your responses to his bad and good rolls.
With those thoughts in mind, consider the three plays that should present themselves as the best representatives of three strategies: safe, slot, run: 11/4, 11/5 8/7, 22/15. And now the best play should become clear. Run? Opponent doesn't break, he converts to an attack, or escapes, with many numbers. Safe? That seems better. Opponent has 13 numbers to reach the bar point, and about 8 bad numbers. But you have little follow-up on the bad or mediocre numbers; your spares are going after the wrong points. Slot? Yes! Opponent reaches the bar point just as often, now hitting, mostly losing for you, but you were going to lose most of those games anyway. You still get some numbers that break the prime. And if not hit, whether Opponent breaks or not, you can make your bar point with any ace. That's should be big for Blue. Very big.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.