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Daily Quiz 4/30: XGR+ evals - Pos 1 RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 27 May 2012, at 2:29 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/30: XGR+ evals (Timothy Chow)

Note the "cubeless" game break down of wins and gammons. The actual number of gammons won in this rollout by Blue on a 1-cube after NO DOUBLE now, was 40 in 3606 trials, or 1.1%.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 6, Blue 7 (match to 9 points)

Move number 2: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White130

' '2X2X2X2X1X1X1X1X '1X

2X3O3O '3O2O '1O ' ' '3O
Blue86
Position ID: bFuVADDu3IQDAA Match ID: cAkgAWAAOAAE

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0023)! [doubtful]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.5850(Money: +0.6424)
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.8584
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.1416
3.Double, take +0.8560 -0.0023
Proper cube action:No double, take (1.6%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.73400.18280.0171-0.26600.02410.0014 +0.5849 +0.8584
Standard error0.00060.00360.0012-0.00060.00110.0003 0.0026 0.0042
Player White owns 2-cube0.73310.31600.0343-0.26690.02240.0017 +1.5420 +0.8560
Standard error0.00080.00550.0024-0.00080.00160.0004 0.0046 0.0066
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
3606 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 920756499 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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