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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 5/2
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/2 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Monday, 28 May 2012, at 7:19 p.m.
Position 1.
16/13 2/1 -- 25 of White's numbers hit now. If Blue is missed, White gets another shot on 31 of Blue's numbers. That's worth about another 9 hits. But if Blue is hit, he still only has the one blot to worry about, so far.
16/15*/12? 14 of White's numbers hit now, 11 of them on the ace point. If Blue is missed, White gets another shot on about 29 of White's numbers (or more, since White entering might block some of Blue's rolls, or less -- White could fan!). That's worth about another 20 hits. But if Blue is hit on the ace point he has two blots to bring around.
So about 34 one-roll hits worth of hits in two rolls for both plays? Then I play 16/13 2/1.
Position 2. Through the sounds of dice in cups and Clorox advertisements, I heard Phil Simborg talking about the O'Hagan rule of market losers. I'll need another lesson, but I don't think Blue has enough net market losers to double this.
The lecture sounded very good from what I heard.
Position 3. Fan ... 5 ... fan is more than 15%, since 5-4 hits. Fan ... no break, no 5 ... fan ... 5 ... fan is more than 7%. 6 ... hit is worth a few %. Misc. other sequences are worth a few %. Residual deuce point games are worth a few %. Cube ownership is worth a few percent. Looks like enough to take. Double/take.
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