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Unfamiliar decisions: #1

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 29 May 2012, at 4:54 p.m.

In Response To: Unfamiliar decisions: #1 (Timothy Chow)

Blue could play 13/8 which surely loses fewer gammons, but I'd put a second checker on the bar 6/1*. Either play is a balance of minimizing (gammon) losses, preserving ace point or ace/deuce or 23-point game chances, converting to a bar point game, and flat out winning going forward.

I can't see that 23/18 promises much such balance. It abandons the 23 point slot and gives Opponent a lot more good returns. 23 of 36 returns put Blue back on the bar, so 23/18 seems to be hoping mostly for a miss followed by a 6 or 1-5, a 13/36*13/36 = 13% chance.

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