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Intermediate Cube Errors #6

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 30 May 2012, at 4:04 p.m.

In Response To: Intermediate Cube Errors #6 (Timothy Chow)

Another view:

Blue is clearly winning this race (Blue is down three pips 90-87 but is on roll, White has waste in the 4 point gap, the 3 and 2 point spares and the 13 point stack especially bearing in vs. White's back checker) and Blue leads by 4 crossovers.

Blue has about 15/36 market losing sequences, (3-3, plus about 11 of the other 12 hits (only 1-1 1-2 and 1-4 enter and cover the ace point -- otherwise, White has a blot and 3 point board, so Blue is still a favorite with a gammon threat even if White enters), plus 6-6 and 5-5, plus 6-5 6-4 answered by small numbers). The hits are very gammonish with White's 4 checkers on the 13 point and ace point blot. Blue loses almost no gammons.

Suppose we give Blue at least 60% in the race, with about 15/36 market losing sequences and a lot of the 13/36 hits, perhaps 7 or 8, winning gammons, and with White winning almost none, and usually far from a redouble. Then the double is clear. Can White take?

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