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Rollout

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 31 May 2012, at 4:21 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Stick)

Stick's rollout's "cubeless" GWC's are 44.72% and 43.54%. "Cubeless" equities are equivalent to gammonless "cubeless" GWC's of 44.23% and 37.58% -- but cubeful equities are equivalent to gammonless GWC's of only 32.2% and 28.45%.

Play	"Cubeless" GWC	Equivalent gammonless "cubeless" GWC	Equivalent Gammonless cubeful GWC
11/5 8/7	44.72%	44.23%	32.2%
22/15	43.54%	37.58%	28.45%

After either play, White wins a lot of games with a redouble/pass.

Three examples:

(1) 61: 11/5 8/7 ... 63: 24/18*/15 ... 53: bar/21 8/3 enters and slots ... cube action?

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 8: White on roll, cube decision?

White	95
Blue	122
Position ID: 1u4EAA6L3TYQAA Match ID: AQEAAAAAAAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5582
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0152	+0.0152
3.	No double	+0.9378	-0.0622
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg   Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 2-cube 0.7571 0.0649 0.0005 - 0.2429 0.0210 0.0005 +0.5582 +0.9378 Standard error 0.0011 0.0010 0.0001 - 0.0011 0.0006 0.0001 0.0025 0.0059 Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.7660 0.0674 0.0009 - 0.2340 0.0212 0.0006 +1.1571 +1.0152 Standard error 0.0013 0.0012 0.0001 - 0.0013 0.0007 0.0001 0.0057 0.0077
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 921115431 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

 

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.5653
0.7609 0.0618 0.0003 - 0.2391 0.0186 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9681
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0319)
3. No double +0.9247 ( -0.0434)
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.6345
0.7874 0.0763 0.0006 - 0.2126 0.0170 0.0001
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.0000
2. Double, take +1.1243 ( +0.1243)
3. No double +0.9700 ( -0.0300)
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.5465
0.7516 0.0640 0.0004 - 0.2484 0.0210 0.0001
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9252
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0748)
3. No double +0.8930 ( -0.0322)
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

61: 22/15 11/5 8/7 ... 63: 24/18*/15 ... 53: bar/21 8/3 enters and slots ... cube action?

(2) 61: 22/15 ... 41: 7/3*/2 ... fan ... cube action?

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 8: White on roll, cube decision?

White	99
Blue	115
Position ID: ZjtHCEAbuzYAIA Match ID: AQEAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.7183
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.2384	+0.2384
3.	No double	+0.8600	-0.1400
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg   Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 2-cube 0.6998 0.3589 0.0105 - 0.3002 0.0491 0.0015 +0.7183 +0.8600 Standard error 0.0023 0.0039 0.0011 - 0.0023 0.0017 0.0003 0.0060 0.0091 Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.7117 0.3486 0.0096 - 0.2883 0.0535 0.0022 +1.4519 +1.2384 Standard error 0.0023 0.0045 0.0009 - 0.0023 0.0016 0.0003 0.0126 0.0162
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
399 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 921115431 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

 

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.7216
0.7009 0.3659 0.0095 - 0.2991 0.0541 0.0015
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.0000
2. Double, take +1.2416 ( +0.2416)
3. No double +0.8834 ( -0.1166)
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass

(3) 61: 11/5 8/7 ... 63: 24/18*/15 ... 53: bar/23* 8/3 enters/hits and slots ... cube action?

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 8: White on roll, cube decision?

White	118
Blue	123
Position ID: 1u4EABbDbhsIQA Match ID: AQEAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6168
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.1089	+0.1089
3.	No double	+0.9136	-0.0864
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg   Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 2-cube 0.7252 0.2281 0.0072 - 0.2748 0.0676 0.0014 +0.6168 +0.9136 Standard error 0.0021 0.0021 0.0006 - 0.0021 0.0016 0.0004 0.0058 0.0106 Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.7351 0.2224 0.0082 - 0.2649 0.0608 0.0020 +1.2758 +1.1089 Standard error 0.0023 0.0026 0.0007 - 0.0023 0.0016 0.0003 0.0128 0.0187
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
996 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 921115431 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

 

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.5689
0.7074 0.2368 0.0075 - 0.2926 0.0888 0.0013
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9389
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0611)
3. No double +0.7977 ( -0.1411)
Proper cube action: Redouble, take


Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.5805
0.7091 0.2465 0.0077 - 0.2909 0.0901 0.0017
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9628
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0372)
3. No double +0.8022 ( -0.1607)
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.5644
0.7074 0.2305 0.0066 - 0.2926 0.0862 0.0014
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9300
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0700)
3. No double +0.8051 ( -0.1249)
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

Messages In This Thread

• 61 desperation
  BenF -- Saturday, 26 May 2012, at 4:11 p.m.
  • 61 desperation
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 27 May 2012, at 3:23 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 30 May 2012, at 6:13 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 31 May 2012, at 4:21 a.m.