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41,472 Rollout Result of 21S-31P-52

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 31 May 2012, at 7:26 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout Results Posted: 21S-31P-52 and 21S-42P-52 (Paul Weaver)

The difference in equity between 21S-31P-52D and 21S-42P-52D is .083, while the difference in equity between 21S-31P-52S and 21S-42P-52S is only .047.

If Blue plays 52D and stays back in both positions, White will have a much better chance to form a prime and win if she owns his 5pt instead of her 4pt, by .083. However, if Blue plays 52S and splits in both, White's advantage in owning her 5pt instead of her 4pt is much less, only .047.

Cannot be sure, but I am guessing, from looking at the data below, that 21S-31P-52S is best at DMP.

Sorry that I started a new thread yesterday by mistake.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C--AeD---b-db--AA-:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 52

1.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.240
Player:
Opponent:		44.72% (G:12.71% B:0.62%)
55.28% (G:17.93% B:0.83%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.243...-0.238) - [72.8%]
Duration: 6 hours 54 minutes
2.Rollout123/18 13/11eq: -0.242 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		45.19% (G:11.12% B:0.58%)
54.81% (G:18.29% B:0.78%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.244...-0.239) - [27.2%]
Duration: 7 hours 35 minutes
1 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C--AeD---b-d-b-AA-:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 52

1.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.157
Player:
Opponent:		46.72% (G:13.58% B:0.73%)
53.28% (G:17.72% B:0.81%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.165...-0.149) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
2.Rollout123/18 13/11eq: -0.195 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		46.39% (G:11.91% B:0.65%)
53.61% (G:19.25% B:0.73%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.203...-0.187) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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