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Rollout: Unfamiliar decisions: #2

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 31 May 2012, at 2:12 p.m.

In Response To: Unfamiliar decisions: #2 (Timothy Chow)

I played 18/16 17/16 here, but the bot prefers 18/17 6/4. There does not seem to be that much difference between the 17pt and the 16pt; the key seems to be the spare distribution on the front points. If we move a spare from the 6pt to the 4pt or the 8pt, then the bot prefers 18/16 17/16 (not shown below). 6/4 looks counterintuitive because it creates another dilly builder, but Blue's position is quite inflexible and he needs to think about how he will play potentially awkward rolls in the near future. I think the way to think about 6/4 is that 2 spares on each of the 6pt and 4pt are more flexible than 3 spares on the 6pt and 1 spare on the 4pt.

I didn't bother rolling out the hit since it's clearly contra-indicated here in light of White's powerful board.





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 4
pip: 150
7 point match
pip: 152
score: 4

Blue is Timothy Chow
XGID=--a-CcE-B---b----ACbcbbA--:1:1:1:21:4:4:0:7:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout118/17 6/4eq: -0.172
Player:
Opponent:		 40.90% (G:11.16% B:0.87%)
59.10% (G:24.00% B:2.27%)		Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.185...-0.159)
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
2.Rollout118/16 17/16eq: -0.213 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		 39.93% (G:10.69% B:0.88%)
60.07% (G:25.65% B:2.22%)		Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.226...-0.200)
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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