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OTB and RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 3 June 2012, at 2:39 p.m.

In Response To: A simple contact bearoff 32? (neilkaz)

OTB I correctly evaluated that the strong cube after Malcolm dances made 6/4 3/0 the best play.

		White is Malcolm Davis score: 0 pip: 32 11 point match pip: 45 score: 0 Blue is Neil Kazaross
XGID=aBBCBBB-----------------g-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 32

1.	Rollout1	6/4 3/Off	eq: +0.4141
	Player: Opponent: 56.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 43.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0022 (+0.4119...+0.4163) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 52 seconds
2.	Rollout1	3/Off 2/Off	eq: +0.3791 (-0.0349)
	Player: Opponent: 57.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 42.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0020 (+0.3772...+0.3811) - [0.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 27 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 78623594 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Here's the recube, which Malcolm properly accepted.

		White is Malcolm Davis score: 0 pip: 32 11 point match pip: 40 score: 0 Blue is Neil Kazaross
XGID=aBBBCBA-----------------g-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.613% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)	74.659% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.387% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)	25.341% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.4923	+1.0083
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.7813 (-0.0933)	±0.0017 (+0.7795..+0.7830)
Redouble/Take:	+0.8746	±0.0025 (+0.8721..+0.8771)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.1254)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 78623594 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

If we had been in this position where I don't have a blot my recube would have been stronger as I realized when considering my 32 and only a bear take. It was this reference position below that helped me with this play.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 32 11 point match pip: 39 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCC------------------g-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	77.152% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)	77.054% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.848% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)	22.946% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.5430	+1.1062
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.8103 (-0.1754)	±0.0017 (+0.8086..+0.8120)
Redouble/Take:	+0.9857	±0.0024 (+0.9833..+0.9881)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.0143)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 78623594 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1.9 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• A simple contact bearoff 32?
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 2 June 2012, at 7:12 a.m.
  • A simple contact bearoff 32?
    Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 2 June 2012, at 12:22 p.m.
  • A simple contact bearoff 32?
    David Rockwell -- Saturday, 2 June 2012, at 3:06 p.m.
    • A simple contact bearoff 32?
      Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 2 June 2012, at 4:05 p.m.
    • A simple contact bearoff 32?
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 3 June 2012, at 4:47 p.m.
  • OTB and RO
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 3 June 2012, at 2:39 p.m.