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Pushmonkey vs. pro again

Posted By: happyjuggler0
Date: Thursday, 25 October 2007, at 3:23 p.m.

In Response To: Pushmonkey vs. pro again (Maik Stiebler)

I too think your analysis is excellent.

One still needs to adjust for real tourney situations and figure out how often blinds rise and how many hands you can get in before then. But this is clearly the tool one needs to mentally adjust over the table.

However even without rising blinds, there is also the human factor. Since the Pro is over the table and winging it even with his superior knowledge (i.e. he has read your chart or done it himself), he loses some EV due to imperfect estimates of both the hands actually winning percentage and where he is on the curve. Therefore not only does he lose perhaps 1-5 times more often per 100 tournies, but he also has to adjust the chart to account for that human factor.

One minor point which doesn't materially affect your analysis (I think) is you usually can't know for sure you are playing a Pushmonkey for a few hands. What if he only pushes all in with a hand that is better than 50/50? Or with a hand that is either 50/50 or where both hole cards play well together (e.g. 65s), especially vs a "real" hand like KK.

So suppose you are (HU of course) on button with BB and your normal play is to raise to 3xBB because you have the edge postflop and that is worth a lot. Then Pushmonkey moves all in, and you fold your "nonreal" hand. Do this a couple of times, as well as limping with SB, and you lose somewhere between perhaps 4-12 extra SB's (one to three hands on the button), or perhaps even more than that if you want to be "safe" in your analysis of your opponent's style. (I used SB's to tally it up because that is essentially the unit you used in your post). Note that you don't lose anything extra when you are SB because BB plays first and there is no limping involved vs a Pushmonkey.

Anyway, thanks once again for such a useful tool. Or rather it would be a useful tool if I had any kind of expectation of playing HU in a tourney where my opp had so much respect for my HU play that he would play like a Pushmonkey rather than try to outplay me. (Rolls eyes at the fantasy). Regardless, it is fabulous from an intellectual point of view to see a great approximation of the solution. Well done!

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