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DMP -- may be your last decision of the game

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 12:35 p.m.

In Response To: DMP -- may be your last decision of the game (Chuck Bower)

20/18 or 5/3.

20/18 gains big on 11, 21, 32, 32, 41, 53 (11 numbers) and loses big on 51, 42, 62 and 22. (7 numbers). Swings on other numbers are small. As gammons don't count against blue, I cannot see the average swing again 20/18 exceeding the gains in favor of 20/18 by a factor 11/7, so I'd play 20/18.

That is how I would analyze it over the board. Basically the analysis is focused on how often we hit, with a bit of fudging to assess how often we win after a hit. The proper analysis would count how often you hit after both plays, and then make assumptions for how often you win after a hit. That is hugely complicated and I cannot do it OTB.

I suspect that if you move a blue checker from the 2 to the 3, and from the 5 to the 4, 20/18 becomes clearly correct, while if you move a blue checker from the 4 to the 3 and from the 5 to the 6, 20/18 becomes clearly wrong, depending on how often blue loses after getting the hit.

Messages In This Thread

• DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
  Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 12:06 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 12:35 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
      Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 2:10 p.m.
      • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
        Steve Mellen -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 5:19 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game--Var1
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 4:55 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game--Var2
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 4:58 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game--original pos., XG++ analysis
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 5:00 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 3:20 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 3:54 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
      Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 5:31 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
    Prince Barlow -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 4:58 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 5:45 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game-- RO
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 16 June 2012, at 1:19 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game-- RO
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 16 June 2012, at 5:04 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game -- var3
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 5:07 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game -- var4
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 5:09 p.m.