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BGonline.org Forums
Unfamiliar decisions: #8
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Unfamiliar decisions: #8 (Timothy Chow)
Date: Friday, 15 June 2012, at 5:53 p.m.
11/4, wasting 2 pips, should be better here.
White has 8 checkers left and will bear off in 5 rolls even if he misses twice. If Blue plays 24/17, Blue's gammon count is 36 = 18 + 11 + 5 + 2. If Blue plays 11/4, Blue's gammon count is 38 = 18 + 18 + 2. Not much difference, and five-plus rolls either way, suggesting that Blue should look to hitting to save the gammon.
Both plays give White 8/36 blotting numbers (63 53 43 32), and the same number of hits on Blue's next roll (8 * 11 / 1296). But 11/4 should give Blue many more hits on Blue's following roll, since White won't be able to Blue off the ace point with 63 53 43 32, and also with 31 33. Among the second-roll hits 24/17 gives up on are, for instance, after 63 53 43 32, a follow-up 65 64 54 blots twice, and a follow-up 62 52 42 blot at least once (twice if Blue has rolled 33 31 or 11).
11/4 does lose a builder, but winning by hitting and remaking the 6 point seems like a very long shot. After 24/17, I would imagine that most of Blue's wins still come without ever remaking the 6 point.
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